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Balashov, VS, Yan, Y and Zhu, X (2020)

Who Manipulates Data During Pandemics? Evidence from Newcomb-Benford Law

Preprint arXiv:2007.14841 [econ.GN]; last accessed March 10, 2021.

ISSN/ISBN: Not available at this time. DOI: Not available at this time.

Abstract: We use the Newcomb-Benford law to test if countries have manipulated reported data during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that democratic countries, countries with the higher gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, higher healthcare expenditures, and better universal healthcare coverage are less likely to deviate from the Newcomb-Benford law. The relationship holds for the cumulative number of reported deaths and total cases but is more pronounced for the death toll. The findings are robust for second-digit tests, for a sub-sample of countries with regional data, and in relation to the previous swine flu (H1N1) 2009-2010 pandemic. The paper further highlights the importance of independent surveillance data verification projects.

@misc{, title={Who Manipulates Data During Pandemics? Evidence from Newcomb-Benford Law}, author={Vadim S. Balashov and Yuxing Yan and Xiaodi Zhu}, year={2020}, eprint={2007.14841}, archivePrefix={arXiv}, primaryClass={econ.GN} how published = {\url{}, }

Reference Type: Preprint

Subject Area(s): Economics, Medical Sciences