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Roukema, BF (2014)

A first-digit anomaly in the 2009 Iranian presidential election

Journal of Applied Statistics 41(1), pp. 164-199.

ISSN/ISBN: Not available at this time. DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2013.838664

Abstract: A local bootstrap method is proposed for the analysis of electoral vote-count first-digit frequencies, complementing the Benford's Law limit. The method is calibrated on five presidential-election first rounds (2002–2006) and applied to the 2009 Iranian presidential-election first round. Candidate K has a highly significant (p<0.15% ) excess of vote counts starting with the digit 7. This leads to other anomalies, two of which are individually significant at p∼ 0.1% and one at p∼ 1%. Independently, Iranian pre-election opinion polls significantly reject the official results unless the five polls favouring candidate A are considered alone. If the latter represent normalised data and a linear, least-squares, equal-weighted fit is used, then either candidates R and K suffered a sudden, dramatic (70%±15% ) loss of electoral support just prior to the election, or the official results are rejected (p∼ 0.01% ).

@article{ author = {{Roukema}, Boudewijn~F.}, title = {A first-digit anomaly in the 2009 Iranian presidential election}, journal = {Journal of Applied Statistics}, archivePrefix = "arXiv", eprint = {0906.2789v6}, keywords = {Simon Newcomb, Benford's Law, bootstrap}, year = {2014}, month = {jan}, volume = {41}, pages = {164-199}, doi = {10.1080/02664763.2013.838664}, url = {}}

Reference Type: Journal Article

Subject Area(s): Voting Fraud